Global Warming Overall Trends
The Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), delivered a 1000 page withering critique of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPA’s Bob Carter was one of its three lead authors who were supported by four dozen chapter authors including Australians Stewart Franks and Bill Kininmonth.
The NIPCC report shows that the latest IPCC report issued two months ago has exaggerated predictions of future warming just as comprehensively as the four previous reports. The latest IPCC report was, however, forced to acknowledge a lack of warming for the past 17 years and no increase in untoward events like hurricanes. The NIPCC finds that any warming that may occur will be modest and not harm the global environment or human well-being.
The NIPCC members were selected for their expertise. In contrast, Lubos Motl shows UN agencies pick climate “experts” on the basis of gender and geography, when expertise is concentrated in the developed world.
Watts Up With That points to the “epic failure of the Canadian climate model,” which has delivered similar forecasts to other IPCC models. The Canadian model predicted 2013 global temperatures 1.2°Celsius above 1980 levels (0.6°Celsius above the 1990-95 average). The actual outcome was temperatures 0.4°Celsius above 1980 (no change on the 1990-95 average).
Australia, like one third of the countries attending the latest climate conference in Warsaw, did not send a minister. Predictably, many delegates blamed typhoon Haiyan on climate change but sober science demonstrated that the incidence of such catastrophes had not increased. Developed world delegates have “pledged” some funding to developing countries but not the $100 billion a year that was sought. A tweet from the Canadian Greens‘ leader pointedly asked if it was the worst ever Conference of Parties. The IPA’s Tim Wilson was there as a referee!
The Advancing Ice
Arctic sea ice has appeared to be reducing while in the Antarctic ice has been increasing. The former is often attributed to human induced climate change, while the latter is attributed to random matters. The Arctic was in fact more easily navigated 70 years ago, as evidenced by a German cruiser making it through to the Pacific in 1940. Now, once again Arctic sea ice coverage seems to be increasing.
Meanwhile the ice coverage of the Antarctic continues to increase in spite of images of melting ice falling into the ocean. NASA announced that at the end of September Antarctic sea ice has extended over the largest area since measurements began in 1979.
In October, unseasonably freezing weather in Victoria accompanied unseasonably warm weather in central NSW accompanied by strong winds. The consequent bushfires are claimed to be evidence for global warming by alarmists ranging from UN Climate Change chief Christiana Figueres to Tim Flannery. David Evans pointed out, “The IPCC says that ‘drought, coupled with extreme heat and low humidity, can increase the risk of wildfire’, but there is no drought in southeast Australia at the moment.” And he added prevention of burn-offs meant, “Current fuel loads are now typically 30 tonnes per hectare in the forests of southeast Australia, compared to maybe 8 tonnes per hectare in the recent and ancient pasts. So fires burn hotter and longer.”
And it is hard to go past Andrew Bolt in placing the current fires in their historical context:
- “of 48 major bushfires in NSW between 1926 and 2006, 11 occurred in October or earlier.”
- “These fires are serious. But the scale of destruction is nothing like the very worst we have faced. The ‘Black Thursday’ fires of February 1851 in Victoria, burnt the largest area (approximately 5 million ha) in European-recorded history and killed more than one million sheep and thousands of cattle as well as taking the lives of 12 people. Between December 1938 to January 1939, 1.5-2.0 million ha were burnt, 71 people were killed and over 1000 homes destroyed in Victoria. In 1944, bushfires in Victoria burnt an estimated one million ha, killed between 15 and 20 people and destroyed more than 500 houses.”
In an interview in Washington, Tony Abbott said, “We’ve had much bigger floods and fires than the ones we’ve recently experienced. You can hardly say they were the result of anthropic global warming.” He described the carbon tax as, “basically socialism masquerading as environmentalism, and that’s why it’s going to get abolished.”
Seeing the Light
John Howard now says he was forced to promote emission restraints due to “a perfect storm” of propaganda.
UK Prime Minister David Cameron is finally understanding that the green schemes he has championed are crippling the economy. In an attempt to shift blame he has pointed out that the costly regulations were introduced by Edward Miliband as Energy Secretary, and said “We need to roll back some of the green regulations and charges that push up our bills. We all know who put them in place.”
Australian politicians are all too busy to visit Warsaw for the latest climate change jamboree. Craig Emerson castigates the Abbott Government as the “first remover” from the emission control program. Too late: Canada has already acted and last week Japan followed suit.
Fumbling in the Dark
The Climate Change Authority (CCA), which was established by the Gillard Government and is to be abolished by the Abbott Government, says the IPCC confirms the influence of human activity on warming. It argues that countries accounting for 80 per cent of global emissions are taking abatement action. The correct figure is only 10 per cent. The CCA advises that the policy position of both the ALP and the Liberals – requiring a five per cent carbon emission reduction by 2020 – creates insufficient damage and should become 15 per cent!
Astonishingly, Stephan Lewandowsky, a taxpayer funded climate alarmist, says “when a CSIRO scientist reviewed the (Club of Rome) 40-year old projections, he found them to be remarkably accurate!” The projections saw many minerals being depleted by 2000 and forecasted global starvation.
US Federal expenditure on climate change in 21 years to 2013 totaled $185 billion. For the latest year, 11 per cent was on science and 75 per cent for “clean energy” and tax breaks to special interests like wind farms. UK spending in the decade to 2021 is estimated at $140 billion, half on wind subsidies etc, and the rest split between UK bureaucracies and EU initiatives. James Dellingpole’s new book, reviewed here eviscerates the green instigators of all this waste.