Archive | April, 2014

Climate News – April Edition

Scientific analyses

Under distinguished scientists Craig Idso, Robert Carter and Fred Singer (who thinks the catastrophic warming scare will soon be abandoned) dozens of scientists have contributed to the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), which is rolling out a comprehensive examination of climate issues. Among its findings are:

  • In recent geological time, the earth’s temperature has fluctuated naturally between about +4°C and -6°C compared with twentieth century temperature.
  • Doubling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 from its pre-industrial level would cause a warming of up to 1.1°C, half of which already has occurred. This would not represent a climate crisis.
  • Modelling in successive IPCC reports since 1990 project a doubling of CO2 could cause warming of up to 6°C by 2100. Instead, stable temperature has been observed for the past 16 years.

The latest volume is on species and demonstrates the positive effect on food growth of increased carbon dioxide emissions (carbon dioxide emissions are harmless to humans and greenhouses contain three times current atmospheric concentrations, about 1200 parts per million).

NIPCC_graph

 

US climatologist, Dr Patrick Michaels, author of half a dozen books and many articles on climate change and one of the most persuasive critics of the IPCC, is to visit Australia as a guest of the IPA to deliver addresses in Perth, 29 April,  Melbourne, 1 May, Sydney, 5 May and Brisbane, 6 May.

Tony Thomas reports that the American Physical Society representing 50,000 physicists is to review the outcomes and theories of global warming, with a panel that is not loaded with warmists. A common view that 97 per cent of scientists consider global warming to be real and caused by human induced emissions stems from a survey with loaded questions sent to 10,257 people. Two critics noted that the 3,146 respondents were further whittled down to 77 self selected climatologists of which 75 were judged to agree human induced warming is taking place.

Contrary to the NIPCC report, IPCC forecasts of steadily falling food production are proving just as wide of the mark as its forecasts of steadily rising temperatures. Undeterred, the IPCC’s meeting in Yokohama is strengthening the language of doom, causing economics author Richard Tol to quit. The professional alarmists representing the British Government prefer the Armageddon projected by Nicholas Stern (criticised here), who was given a peerage for his exaggerations. A lack of evidence of warming was predictably compensated by rhetorical hype as seen in material ‘leaked’ to The Guardian. And one chapter even suggests that climate change will push the world into war. As if this was not enough to stimulate interest in the Yokohama event, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon sought to examine first-hand the impacts of climate change during a visit to Greenland. Apparently he went dog-sledding and observed a ceremony in a local church accompanied by the leaders of Denmark and Greenland.

What climate crisis?

The IPA’s fourth annual survey of Australian opinion on climate matters conducted by Galaxy has shown little change in opinions. Notwithstanding all the hype, over 60 per cent are unconvinced that the climate is changing due to human causes. As previously reported, a CSIRO survey put the believers and sceptics closer to 50/50 but concern about global warming was very low. The Galaxy survey put belief in climate change as strongest among younger people (who have been exposed to government propaganda in their school years) and wealthier people. But fewer than four per cent of respondents would agree to pay over $1,000 a year to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to the extent ostensibly required. Treasury endorsed an OECD report which estimated a carbon tax of some $90 per tonne (p. 25) would be required for Australia to meet its 2020 targets – that tax would be about $2,000 per head!

John Mathews, the Chair of Strategy at Macquarie University, would dispute such costs since he considers that economic growth is possible only if fossil fuels are abandoned!

Real politics and climate scares on collision course

The head of Gallup has commented on the ambiguity between the lack of a priority Americans give to global warming and the high profile it has among the political elites (previously addressed in Climate News). Among the nine possible reasons for the low priority afforded to the matter is “Americans may believe that if other problems aren’t fixed first (economy, jobs, dysfunctional government) the effects of global warming won’t matter.”

This intolerance among ordinary Americans to taxes that raise energy prices has given US industry decided advantages in electricity prices, less than half those of Europe, resulting in firms like BMW and Mercedes re-locating plants to the US.

In spite of a low priority given to the issue by Australians, carbon measures in Australia have brought household electricity prices to European levels.

However, the Crimean crisis has persuaded EU leaders that there’s something more important than saving the world and they are now favouring fracking to substitute western gas for the Russian variety. UK Prime Minister David Cameron has been particularly strident, prompting a response from Greenpeace that this is “a cynical attempt to exploit the Ukraine crisis”. Greenpeace had no problem with European Commissioner for Climate Action, Connie Hedegaard, seeing Russia’s annexation of the Crimea as yet another reason to switch to renewables.